Monmouth Poll Shows Murphy With 14 Point Lead Over Guadagno

Oct 3, 2017

A Monmouth University poll finds that 51 percent of likely New Jersey voters support Democrat Phil Murphy in the race for governor while 37 percent favor Republican Kim Guadagno.

Poll director Patrick Murray says the 14-point gap is not insurmountable, but indications are Guadagno’s key proposal to reduce property taxes is not getting any traction

“Only 12 percent of New Jerseyans actually know that Guadagno has proposed a property tax plan. And frankly we have to decrease that number a little bit because 6 percent think Phil Murphy has a property tax plan when he hasn’t really released one.’

Even if more voters pay attention to Guadagno’s plan, Murray says that might not help her.

"70 percent of New Jerseyans say that if a politician puts out a property tax plan during the campaign, they're not going to believe it.  They're going to think it's a campaign ploy that won't amount to much. We only have about one in five that say they would take it seriously as a plan that could be effective."

Murray says the Republican brand also hurts Guadagno's campaign because Governor Christie and President Donald Trump are both unpopular among New Jersey voters.

Nearly half of the likely voters have not formed an opinion about either major party gubernatorial nominee. Murray says the campaigns can’t break through all the political noise coming out of Washington.